In Follow-Up Study, Center Finds That Excess Death Trend Continues Through COVID-19 Pandemic

In a follow-up study, the Center on Society and Health found that a shocking trend has continued beyond spring and through the summer–for every two deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. since March, a third person dies as a result of the pandemic.

According to the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, “between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 136,561 deaths occurred in the U.S, a 20% increase over expected deaths,” the study continues, “of the 225,530 excess deaths, 150,541 (67%) were attribute to COVID-19.” During this time, mortality rates for heart disease and Alzheimer’s disease increased simultaneously with surges in COVID-19 deaths. 

The study also notes that states that experienced surges in April and reopened later, had shorter epidemics that returned to baseline in May, whereas states that reopened earlier experienced a prolonged increase in excess deaths that extended into the summer. 

Total death counts in the U.S. are fairly consistent from year to year. These deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19 – such as diabetes, heart disease, or other conditions – could reflect undocumented infection or deaths among uninfected patients resulting from disruptions produced by the pandemic, such as delay in care.  

The study is building upon a similar study by the Center published in July that focused on reported deaths from March and April. The studies pull data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2014 and 2020, using regression models to predict expected deaths from 2020. 

Read more about the study on the VCU News website. You can also read the study on the JAMA website.

You can also find coverage of the study on NPR, NBC News, or in USA TODAY, and Forbes.